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2024 Presidential Election

This is the final 2024 election prediction.

There are days left until the election on November 5, 2024.

9/22/24 Technical Update: After extensive historical testing, the model complexity was increased to better account for poll error correlation across time and states.



Pick a State

See the potential vote margins and each state's election history. Each state is shaded according to it's probability of victory for either party.


Note that the Nebraska and Maine results shown are state-wide and there is no further breakdown to territorial electoral votes.